The 2019 EUROFRAME Economic Assessment of the Euro Area report has been released.

This Euroframe Report presents an assessment of the economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 focused on the euro area based on a synopsis of the forecasts of Euroframe institutes. The euro area economy is expected to moderately slowdown with growth rates of 1.6 percent in 2019 and 1.5 percent in 2020 and significant downside risks stemming from a potential escalation of trade disputes and the uncertainties around Brexit. The Focus section takes a closer look at wage developments finding that nominal wages in Europe have finally picked up in response to the progressive economic recovery and falling unemployment, although the strength of the upturn differs across countries depending on their position in the cycle.

The report can be downloaded here (PDF).

Growth in the euro area to remain muted

Growth in the euro area is expected to pick up somewhat from the low third quarter reading, but remain moderate for the time being, according to the January EUROFRAME Euro Growth Indicator. GDP is forecast to rise by 0.3 per cent in both the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, representing only modest improvement from the disappointing 0.2 percent growth registered by Eurostat for the July-September quarter. On a year-over-year basis, growth would decelerate to 1.3 per cent and 1.2 per cent in 2018Q4 and 2019Q1, respectively, down from 1.6 per cent in the third quarter and 2.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.


More information on this topic on our Euro Growth Indicator section.

The 16th EUROFRAME Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union will be held on 7 June 2019 in Dublin (Ireland).

The conference will deal with "Greater cohesion in an increasingly fractured world: Where now for the European project?".Submissions deadline: 15 February 2019.

The call for papers has been released and can be downloaded here (PDF).

Euro Growth Indicator shows growth will accelerate slightly in the next two quarters as the effects of transitory factors fade out

The December Euro Growth Indicator suggests that euro area GDP growth accelerates to a quarterly rate of 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2019. The Indicator implies that the year-on-year growth rate would be 1.4 per cent in both quarters. These growth rates are consistent with the expectation of some rebound from the temporary drop in car production especially in Germany that negatively affected growth in the third quarter and is expected to be largely temporary.


More information on this topic on our Euro Growth Indicator section.