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Near-term outlook for the euro area has brightened up a bit

The December EUROGROWTH indicator suggests that the risks of the euro area economy slipping into the third recession in five years have diminished, although the growth momentum remains modest. According to the latest estimation, growth in the euro area will increase slightly to 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of 2014 and in the first quarter of 2015, from the slow pace of growth of 0.1 and 0.2 per cent, respectively, realised in the two quarters before.

More information on this topic on our Euro Growth Indicator section.

Fears of a ‘triple dip’ in the euro area

The persistent weakness of to the EUROGROWTH indicator raises concerns that a sustained recovery in the euro are economy may again fail to materialize. According to the indicator, growth will remain weak at 0.2 per cent in the last two quarters of 2014. On a year-on-year basis, the expansion path would continue to decelerate, from its former peak at 1.2 percent in 2014Q1 to 0.7 in the final quarter of 2014.

More information on this topic on our Euro Growth Indicator section.

Euro Area growth remains weak at 0.2 and 0.1 per cent in the third and fourth quarters of 2014, according to the Eurogrowth Indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME group in October. The growth estimates were unchanged from September, although the model was re-estimated.The quarterly growth estimates translate into year-on-year growth rates of 0.8 and 0.6 percent, respectively.

More information on this topic on our Euro Growth Indicator section.

The outlook for the euro area has deteriorated. After a relatively good start into
this year, economic growth slowed down considerably. According to the September
estimate of the Eurogrowth indicator, only minor increases of real GDP can be
expected for the second half of 2014: Just 0.2 percent in the third quarter (which
is a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points), and a meagre 0.1 percent in the
fourth quarter.

More information on this topic on our Euro Growth Indicator section.