Euro Growth Indicator

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Growth in the euro area falters again in spring

The pick up of GDP growth in the euro area evident in the EUROSTAT flash estimate for 2019Q1 may prove to be temporary. The May Euro Growth Indicator calculated by EUROFRAME suggests a stagnant economy in the second quarter and year-on-year growth slipping to 0.7 per cent, reflecting a continued drag from the industrial sector and deteriorating consumer confidence.

 

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Sluggish growth in the euro area

The euro area remains in the doldrums, according to the April Euro Growth Indicator calculated by the EUROFRAME group of economic research institutes. GDP is forecast to rise by a modest 0.3 per cent in first quarter of 2019 and by only 0.1 percent in the second quarter. On a year-over-year basis, growth would decelerate to 1.0 per cent and 0.7 per cent in 2019Q1 and 2019Q2, respectively. 

 

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EUROGROWTH Indicator shows only modest growth for the next two quarters

The March EUROGROWTH Indicator suggests that euro area GDP growth will rise by close to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, following 0.2 per cent according to Eurostat in the fourth quarter, and decelerate again in the second quarter to close to stagnation . The indicator’s estimate implies that the year-on-year growth rate would decline to 1.0 per cent and 0.7 per cent in the first and second quarters of 2019, respectively.

 

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Euro area GDP growth to remain moderate in the first quarter of 2019

Euro area GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the preliminary flash estimate released by EUROSTAT, slightly less than the 0.3 per cent growth anticipated by the EUROGROWTH indicator calculated by EUROFRAME. According to the EUROGROWTH indicator, euro area GDP growth would slightly decelerate from 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 0.25 per cent in the first quarter of this year driven by the deterioration of the sentiment in the industrial sector.

 

More information on this topic on our Euro Growth Indicator section.