09.00 - 9.40

Keynote lecture


The Euro at 20: Successes, Problems, Progress and Threats

Karl Whelan, University College Dublin 


Chair: Kieran McQuinn, ESRI


9.40 - 11.10

Session 1
Monetary issues

Chair: Stefania Tomasini, PROMETEIA Associzione

Policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market
Rachel Slaymaker, Conor O’Toole and Kieran McQuinn, ESRI, Mike Fahy, Trinity College Dublin and Government of Ireland

Interest overhang: a rationale for the existence of sovereign lending mechanisms
Roberto Pancrazi, University of Warwick, Luca Zavalloni, Central Bank of Ireland

Shocking aspects of monetary policy on income inequality in the Euro Area
Jérôme Creel, Sciences Po, OFCE and ESCP Europe, Mehdi El Herradi University of Bordeaux-LAREFI

John FitzGerald, Trinity College Dublin


9:40 - 11:10

Session 2
External trade and migration

Chair: Markku Lehmus, ETLA

Revisiting external imbalances: Insights from sectoral  accounts
Cian Allen, Trinity College Dublin

Nobody wins: Protectionism and (un)employment in a model-based analysis
Pascal Jacquinot, ECB, Matija Losej, Central Bank of Ireland, Massimiliano Pisani, Bank of Italy

The macroeconomic determinants of migration
John Lewis and Matt Swannell, Bank of England


Discussant: Gerdien Meijerink, CPB


9.40- 11.10

Session 3

Chair: Adele Bergin, ESRI

Brexit: Why, how, and when?
Catherine Mathieu and Henri Sterdyniak, OFCE

Brexit and trade on the island of Ireland
Martina Lawless, ESRI



11.30 - 13.00

Session 4
Banking and finance (1)

Chair: Connor O'Toole, ESRI

Financial cycles in Europe: Dynamics, synchronicity and implications for business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances
Amat Adarov, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

Effectiveness of new macrofinancial policies
José A. Carrasco-Gallego, King Juan Carlos University

Revisiting the finance and growth nexus – A deeper look at sectors and instruments
Robert Unger, Deutsche Bundesbank

: Agustín Bénétrix, Trinity College Dublin


11.30 - 13.00

Session 5
EU The Irish economy and Brexit

Chair: John Lewis, Bank of England

How openness to trade rescued the Irish economy
Kieran McQuinn and Petros Varthalitis, ESRI and Trinity College Dublin

The potential macroeconomic and sectoral consequences of Brexit on Ireland
Christine Arriola, Caitlyn Carrico, David Haugh, Nigel Pain, Elena Rusticelli, Donal Smith, Frank van Tongeren and Ben Westmore, OECD

Ireland and Brexit: Modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios
Adele Bergin, ESRI, Philip Economides, ESRI, Abian Garcia-Rodriguez, ESRI and Trinity College, Gavin Murphy, Department of Finance, Ireland

: Ray Barrell, Centre for Macroeconomics, LSE and Brunel University London


11.30 - 13.00

Session 6
Political economy

Chair: David Cronin, Central Bank of Ireland

Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in real time
Salvador Barrios, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Adriana Reut, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Sara Riscado, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, and Portuguese Ministry of Finance, Wouter van der Wielen European Commission, Joint Research Centre

An evaluation of different proposals for a European fiscal capacity
Sebastian Weiske and Mustafa Yeter, German Council of Economic Expertsand

The Economic and Monetary Union: Past, present and future
Marek Dabrowski, CASE, Bruegel, and Higher School of Economics, Moscow

Discussant: Klaus-Jürgen Gern, IfW Kiel


14.10 - 15.50

Session 7
Banking and finance (2)

Chair: Robert Unger, Deutsche Bundesbank

Bank capital, excess credit and crisis incidence
Ray Barrell and Dilruba Karim, Centre for Macroeconomics, LSE and Brunel University London

An early warning system for banking crises: From regression-based analysis to machine learning techniques
Elizabeth Jane Casabianca, Prometeia Associazione and Polytechnic University of Marche, Michele Catalano, Prometeia Associazione, Lorenzo Forni, Prometeia Associazione and University of Padua, Elena Giarda, Prometeia Associazione and University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Simone Passeri, Prometeia Associazione

Fiscal distress and banking performance: The role of macroprudential regulation
Hiona Balfoussia, Bank of Greece, Harris Dellas, University of Bern and CEPR, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Bank of Greece

: Yvonne McCarthy, Central Bank of Ireland


14.10 - 15.50

Session 8
Budgetary issues

Chair: Henri Sterdyniak, OFCE

Estimating the impact of the financial cycle on fiscal policy
Beau Soederhuizen, Rutger Teulings, Rob Luginbuhl, CPB

Public-sector employment over the life cycle
Pedro Gomes, Birkbeck, University of London, Felix Wellschmied, University Carlos III Madrid

Fiscal Multipliers with an informal sector
Harris Dellas, University of Bern, Dimitris Malliaropulos, Bank of Greece and University of Piraeus, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Bank of Greece, Evangelia Vourvachaki, Bank of Greece

: John McCarthy, Irish Department of Finance

14.10 - 15.50

Session 9

Chair: Jérôme Creel, Sciences Po, OFCE and ESCP Europe

Inequality in EMU: is there a core periphery dualism?
Tatiana Cesaroni, Bankitalia and MEF-DT, Enrico D’Elia, MEF-DF, and Roberta De Santis, Istat and LUISS

Rent seeking worsens economic outcomes and increases wealth inequality
Angelos Angelopoulos, Athens University of Economics and Business and Greek Open University, Konstantinos Angelopoulos, University of Glasgow and CESifo

Modeling rent seeking activities: quality of institutions, macroeconomic performance, and the economic crisis
Tryfon Christou, Athens University of Economics and Business, Apostolis Philippopoulos, Athens University of Economics and Business, and CESifo, Vanghelis Vassilatos, Athens University of Economics and Business

: Claire Keane, ESRI


16.20 - 18.00

Round Table

Chair: John FitzGerald, ESRI

Klaus-Jürgen Gern, IfW Kiel

Paolo Onofri, PROMETEIA

Karl Pichelmann, European Commission