08.15 - 8.45



08.45 - 9.00

Opening addresses

Klaus-Jürgen Gern, IfW Kiel and EUROFRAME

Catherine Mathieu, EUROFRAME and OFCE


Session A1

09.10 - 10.40

Supply Chain Issues  (Lecture Hall)

Chair: Päivi Puonti, ETLA

Foreign Investment Screening in the EU
Francesco Paolo Conteduca, Banca d’Italia, Karsten Mau, Maastricht University

Trade Effects of Supply Chain Regulations: Empirical Evidence from the Loi de Vigilance
Galina V. Kolev-Schaefer, Cologne University of Applied Sciences, and German Economic Institute, Adriana S. Neligan, German Economic Institute

Activities in Global Value Chains of Manufactured Goods – a Dutch Case Study
Daan Freeman, Stefan Boeters, Gerdien Meijerink, Maarten van ‘t Riet, CPB, Konstantin Sommer, University of Amsterdam, Benjamin Wache, CPB 


Discussant: Alexander Plekhanov, EBRD

Session A2

09.10 - 10.40

International Finance (Conference Room)

Chair: Stephen Millard, NIESR

Policy Decisions Preparing for FX Intervention
Tobias Heidland, Kiel University and IfW Kiel, Lukas Menkhoff, Humboldt-University Berlin, DIW Berlin and IfW Kiel, Sékou Metiki, IfW Kiel and DIW Berlin

The Macroeconomic Effects of FX Intervention
Lukas Menkhoff, Humboldt-University Berlin, DIW Berlin and IfW Kiel, Karoline Offen, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Malte Rieth, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg and DIW Berlin

Dollar Dominance and Sanctions
Vitus Rennert, University of Bayreuth, University of Copenhagen, German Council of Economic Experts


Discussant: Sandra Bilek-Steindl, WIFO

Session A3

09.10 - 10.40

Impacts of Exogenous Shocks (Media Room)

Chair: Catherine Mathieu, OFCE

How Do Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices?
Valérie Mignon, EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre, and CEPII, Jamel Saadaoui, University of Strasbourg, University of Lorraine, BETA, CNRS

Shooting Down trade: Firm-Level Effects of Embargoes
Ugur Aytun, Dumlupınar University, Julian Hinz, Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy & Kiel Centre for Globalization, and Cem Özgüzel, Paris School of Economics & Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne & IZA Labor Institute


Discussant: tba

Session B1

11.00- 12.30

Trade Agreements, Trade Conflicts (Lecture Hall)

Chair: Marek Dabrowski, CASE


The EU-India Free Trade Agreement: Ex-ante trade, CO2 Emission and Welfare Effects Under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
Gero Dasbach, University of Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management

Decoupling China and Russia from the West: the Effects on Trade
Benjamin Wache, Stefan Boeters, Merve Mavus Kütük, Gerdien Meijerink, Maarten van ‘t Riet, CPB, Konstantin Sommer, University of Amsterdam

Modeling Semiconductor Export Restrictions and the US-China Trade Conflict
Michael Funke, Hamburg University and Tallinn University of Technology, Adrian Wende, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna


Discussant: Robert Gold, IfW Kiel

Session B2

11:00 - 12:30

Finance and Globalisation (Media Room)

Chair: Sarah Guillou, OFCE


Renminbi Rising? Exporters’ Response to China’s Currency Internationalization
Sonali Chowdhry, DIW Berlin and Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Quarterly Projection Model for Macroprudential Policy Analysis and Financial Stability in the Euro Area
Manlan N’Goran, University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble INP, CREG

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Financial Performance
Alessandro D’Orazio, Sapienza University of Rome, European Central Bank, Fabrizio Ferriani, Bank of Italy, Andrea Gazzani, Bank of Italy

Discussant: Ahmet Kaya, NIESR

Session B3

11.00- 12.30

Trade and Green Transition (Conference Room)

Chair: tba


Green Risk in Europe
Nuno Cassola, University of Lisbon, Center for European Studies; Claudio Morana, University of Milano-Bicocca, Center for European Studies, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies; Elisa Ossola, University of Milano-Bicocca, Center for European Studies, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis

European Carbon Import Tax Effective Against Leakage
Stan Olijslagers, CPB, Corjan Brink, PBL, Lucas Smits, CPB, Xinyu Li, PBL, Rutger Teulings, CPB

US and EU Financial Instruments to Foster Corporate Investments in Clean Technology
Adam A. Ambroziak, Eliza Przeździecka, SGH Warsaw School of Economics

Discussant: Rolf Langhammer, IfW Kiel

Session C1

14.00 - 15.30

Economic Sanctions (Lecture Hall)

Chair: Gerdien Meijerink, CPB


Who is to Suffer? Quantifying the Impact of Sanctions on German firms
Holger Görg, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, University of Kiel, Anna Jacobs, Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Saskia Meuchelböck, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Decision to Leave: Economic Sanctions and Intermediated Trade
Maxim Chupilkin, University of Oxford and EBRD, Beata Javorcik, University of Oxford, EBRD and CEPR, Aleksandra Peeva, Humboldt University of Berlin, Alexander Plekhanov, EBRD

The Potential Impact of Sanctions on the European and the Russian Economy – A GVC Approach
Peter Vakhal, Kopint-Tárki Institute for Economic Research, Budapest, Corvinus University of Budapest


Discussant: Ugur Aytun, Dumlupınar University

Session C2

14.00 - 15.30

Trade and Sovereignty (Conference Room)

Chair: Galina V. Kolev-Schäfer, Cologne University and German Economic Institute


Foul Play? On the Scale and Scope of Industrial Subsidies in China
Frank Bickenbach, Dirk Dohse, Rolf J. Langhammer, and Wan-Hsin Liu, IfW Kiel, Invited Paper

Facing the US and China, the European Union Meets Intractable Dilemma to Settle its Digital Sovereignty
Sarah Guillou, SciencesPo OFCE

The Risk of Protectionism: What Can be Lost?
Marek Dabrowski, CASE, Bruegel, Central European University


Discussant: Iulia Siedschlag, ESRI and Trinity College Dublin

Session C3

14.00 - 15.30

Political Issues (Media Room)

Chair: Klaus‐Jürgen Gern, IfW


The Economic and Social Impacts of Lifting Work Restrictions on People Seeking Asylum
Ekaterina Aleynikova and Max Mosley, NIESR

Spheres of Influence
Matteo Camboni, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Michael Porcellacchia, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Impact of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility
Stephen Millard, NIESR

Discussant: Henri Sterdyniak

Round Table

16.00 - 18.00

Round Table (Lecture Hall)

Chair: Rolf Langhammer, IfW Kiel


16.00 – 16.45: Keynote Introduction: European Economic Security in a Fragmenting World

Moritz Schularick, IfW Kiel, Sciences Po and CEPR


16.45 – 18.00: Panel Discussion

Lorenzo Forni, Prometeia Associazione
Katrin Kamin, Siemens AG and Kiel Institute Fellow
Gerdien Meijerink, CPB
Moritz Schularick, IfW Kiel, Sciences Po and CEPR

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