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Euro Growth Indicator December 2018

Euro Growth Indicator shows growth will accelerate slightly in the next two quarters as the effects of transitory factors fade out

The December Euro Growth Indicator suggests that euro area GDP growth accelerates to a quarterly rate of 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2019. The Indicator implies that the year-on-year growth rate would be 1.4 per cent in both quarters. These growth rates are consistent with the expectation of some rebound from the temporary drop in car production especially in Germany that negatively affected growth in the third quarter and is expected to be largely temporary.

 

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Euro Growth Indicator November 2018

Euro area GDP growth expected to decelerate by the end of the year

Euro area GDP growth in the third quarter (Eurostat flash estimate just 0.2 per cent) seems to be negatively affected by a temporary drop in car production related to the implementation of the new EU-wide WLTP car testing procedure. Such factors cannot be perfectly captured by leading indicators based on survey data. Underlying growth momentum in the euro area is, however, clearly decelerating. According to the EUROGROWTH indicator, GDP growth would decline from 0.4 per cent in the third quarter to 0.25 per cent in the fourth quarter. On a year-over-year basis, euro area GDP growth would come down from its previous peak of 2.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2017 to 1.2 per cent only in the fourth quarter of 2018.

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Euro Growth Indicator October 2018

Growth in the euro area decelerates

Growth in the euro area is expected to gradually slow down further towards the end of this year. According to the October Euro Growth Indicator calculated by EUROFRAME, growth will decelerate further to 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter, after stable growth of 0.4 per cent in the third quarter. On a year-over-year basis, growth would decline to 1.9 per cent and 1.5 per cent in Q3 and Q4, respectively, down from 2.1 per cent in the second quarter and 2.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

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Euro Growth Indicator September 2018

Euro area growth to slow down further towards the end of the year

The September Euro Growth indicator suggests that euro area growth in the third quarter of 2018 will keep its recent pace of 0.4 per cent. The first Indicator estimate for the fourth quarter signals a slow down to a quarterly rate of 0.3 per cent, implying a year-on-year growth rate in the last quarter of 2018 of 1.5 per cent, a growth rate well below the numbers seen during last two years.

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