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Euro Growth Indicator February 2019

Euro area GDP growth to remain moderate in the first quarter of 2019

Euro area GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the preliminary flash estimate released by EUROSTAT, slightly less than the 0.3 per cent growth anticipated by the EUROGROWTH indicator calculated by EUROFRAME. According to the EUROGROWTH indicator, euro area GDP growth would slightly decelerate from 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 0.25 per cent in the first quarter of this year driven by the deterioration of the sentiment in the industrial sector.

 

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Euro Growth Indicator January 2019

Growth in the euro area to remain muted

Growth in the euro area is expected to pick up somewhat from the low third quarter reading, but remain moderate for the time being, according to the January EUROFRAME Euro Growth Indicator. GDP is forecast to rise by 0.3 per cent in both the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, representing only modest improvement from the disappointing 0.2 percent growth registered by Eurostat for the July-September quarter. On a year-over-year basis, growth would decelerate to 1.3 per cent and 1.2 per cent in 2018Q4 and 2019Q1, respectively, down from 1.6 per cent in the third quarter and 2.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

 

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Euro Growth Indicator December 2018

Euro Growth Indicator shows growth will accelerate slightly in the next two quarters as the effects of transitory factors fade out

The December Euro Growth Indicator suggests that euro area GDP growth accelerates to a quarterly rate of 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2019. The Indicator implies that the year-on-year growth rate would be 1.4 per cent in both quarters. These growth rates are consistent with the expectation of some rebound from the temporary drop in car production especially in Germany that negatively affected growth in the third quarter and is expected to be largely temporary.

 

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Euro Growth Indicator November 2018

Euro area GDP growth expected to decelerate by the end of the year

Euro area GDP growth in the third quarter (Eurostat flash estimate just 0.2 per cent) seems to be negatively affected by a temporary drop in car production related to the implementation of the new EU-wide WLTP car testing procedure. Such factors cannot be perfectly captured by leading indicators based on survey data. Underlying growth momentum in the euro area is, however, clearly decelerating. According to the EUROGROWTH indicator, GDP growth would decline from 0.4 per cent in the third quarter to 0.25 per cent in the fourth quarter. On a year-over-year basis, euro area GDP growth would come down from its previous peak of 2.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2017 to 1.2 per cent only in the fourth quarter of 2018.

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