Euro Growth Indicator

Archive 2015

A chance for a recovery in the euro area

According to the EUROGROWTH indicator April estimates, euro area GDP growth will accelerate from 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 0.4 and 0.5 percent, respectively, in the first and second quarters of 2015. On a year-on-year basis, growth should accelerate up to mid-2015 from less than 1 per cent in the last four quarters to 1.5 per cent:  the euro area economy seems to start recovering at last.

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Euro area growth is slowly gaining traction

Growth in the euro area will remain at 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015. The first estimation for the second quarter predicts a small improvement to 0.4 per cent, confirming the modest upward momentum. On a year-on-year basis, the expansion is set to strengthen from 0.9 per cent in the past couple of quarters to 1.3 per cent in the coming quarter. Although modest by historical standards, this would be the highest rate of growth in four and a half years.

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Growth momentum in the Euro Area continues to be weak in winter 2015

Euro Area growth remains weak in the winter 2014/2015 according to the February EUROGROWTH Indicator calculated by the Euroframe group. The quarter-to-quarter growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2014 is forecast at 0.3 per cent, unchanged from the January estimation. The forecast growth rate for the first quarter of 2015 inched up by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4 per cent. The year-on-year growth rates are 0.8 and 0.9 per cent, respectively.

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A slight improvement in the euro area growth outlook

The EUROGROWTH indicator forecasts are unchanged in January 2015 from December 2014. According to the indicator, euro area GDP will increase by 0.3 per cent in both the last quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015 which is only slightly better than growth rates released for the two previous quarters. On a year-on-year basis, the growth path would remain very weak at less than 1 percent.

More information on this topic on our Euro Growth Indicator section.