08.15 - 8.45
Registration
08.45 - 9.00
Opening addresses
Klaus-Jürgen Gern, IfW Kiel and EUROFRAME
Catherine Mathieu, EUROFRAME and OFCE
Session A1
09.10 - 10.40
Supply Chain Issues (Lecture Hall)
Chair: Päivi Puonti, ETLA
Foreign Investment Screening in the EU
Francesco Paolo Conteduca, Banca d’Italia, Karsten Mau, Maastricht University
Trade Effects of Supply Chain Regulations: Empirical Evidence from the Loi de Vigilance
Galina V. Kolev-Schaefer, Cologne University of Applied Sciences, and German Economic Institute, Adriana S. Neligan, German Economic Institute
Activities in Global Value Chains of Manufactured Goods – a Dutch Case Study
Daan Freeman, Stefan Boeters, Gerdien Meijerink, Maarten van ‘t Riet, CPB, Konstantin Sommer, University of Amsterdam, Benjamin Wache, CPB
Discussant: Alexander Plekhanov, EBRD
Session A2
09.10 - 10.40
International Finance (Conference Room)
Chair: Stephen Millard, NIESR
Policy Decisions Preparing for FX Intervention
Tobias Heidland, Kiel University and IfW Kiel, Lukas Menkhoff, Humboldt-University Berlin, DIW Berlin and IfW Kiel, Sékou Metiki, IfW Kiel and DIW Berlin
The Macroeconomic Effects of FX Intervention
Lukas Menkhoff, Humboldt-University Berlin, DIW Berlin and IfW Kiel, Karoline Offen, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Malte Rieth, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg and DIW Berlin
Dollar Dominance and Sanctions
Vitus Rennert, University of Bayreuth, University of Copenhagen, German Council of Economic Experts
Discussant: Sandra Bilek-Steindl, WIFO
Session A3
09.10 - 10.40
Impacts of Exogenous Shocks (Media Room)
Chair: Catherine Mathieu, OFCE
How Do Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices?
Valérie Mignon, EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre, and CEPII, Jamel Saadaoui, University of Strasbourg, University of Lorraine, BETA, CNRS
Shooting Down trade: Firm-Level Effects of Embargoes
Ugur Aytun, Dumlupınar University, Julian Hinz, Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy & Kiel Centre for Globalization, and Cem Özgüzel, Paris School of Economics & Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne & IZA Labor Institute
Discussant: tba
Session B1
11.00- 12.30
Trade Agreements, Trade Conflicts (Lecture Hall)
Chair: Marek Dabrowski, CASE
The EU-India Free Trade Agreement: Ex-ante trade, CO2 Emission and Welfare Effects Under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
Gero Dasbach, University of Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management
Decoupling China and Russia from the West: the Effects on Trade
Benjamin Wache, Stefan Boeters, Merve Mavus Kütük, Gerdien Meijerink, Maarten van ‘t Riet, CPB, Konstantin Sommer, University of Amsterdam
Modeling Semiconductor Export Restrictions and the US-China Trade Conflict
Michael Funke, Hamburg University and Tallinn University of Technology, Adrian Wende, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
Discussant: Robert Gold, IfW Kiel
Session B2
11:00 - 12:30
Finance and Globalisation (Media Room)
Chair: Sarah Guillou, OFCE
Renminbi Rising? Exporters’ Response to China’s Currency Internationalization
Sonali Chowdhry, DIW Berlin and Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Quarterly Projection Model for Macroprudential Policy Analysis and Financial Stability in the Euro Area
Manlan N’Goran, University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble INP, CREG
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Financial Performance
Alessandro D’Orazio, Sapienza University of Rome, European Central Bank, Fabrizio Ferriani, Bank of Italy, Andrea Gazzani, Bank of Italy
Discussant: Ahmet Kaya, NIESR
Session B3
11.00- 12.30
Trade and Green Transition (Conference Room)
Chair: tba
Green Risk in Europe
Nuno Cassola, University of Lisbon, Center for European Studies; Claudio Morana, University of Milano-Bicocca, Center for European Studies, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies; Elisa Ossola, University of Milano-Bicocca, Center for European Studies, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis
European Carbon Import Tax Effective Against Leakage
Stan Olijslagers, CPB, Corjan Brink, PBL, Lucas Smits, CPB, Xinyu Li, PBL, Rutger Teulings, CPB
US and EU Financial Instruments to Foster Corporate Investments in Clean Technology
Adam A. Ambroziak, Eliza Przeździecka, SGH Warsaw School of Economics
Discussant: Rolf Langhammer, IfW Kiel
Session C1
14.00 - 15.30
Economic Sanctions (Lecture Hall)
Chair: Gerdien Meijerink, CPB
Who is to Suffer? Quantifying the Impact of Sanctions on German firms
Holger Görg, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, University of Kiel, Anna Jacobs, Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Saskia Meuchelböck, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Decision to Leave: Economic Sanctions and Intermediated Trade
Maxim Chupilkin, University of Oxford and EBRD, Beata Javorcik, University of Oxford, EBRD and CEPR, Aleksandra Peeva, Humboldt University of Berlin, Alexander Plekhanov, EBRD
The Potential Impact of Sanctions on the European and the Russian Economy – A GVC Approach
Peter Vakhal, Kopint-Tárki Institute for Economic Research, Budapest, Corvinus University of Budapest
Discussant: Ugur Aytun, Dumlupınar University
Session C2
14.00 - 15.30
Trade and Sovereignty (Conference Room)
Chair: Galina V. Kolev-Schäfer, Cologne University and German Economic Institute
Foul Play? On the Scale and Scope of Industrial Subsidies in China
Frank Bickenbach, Dirk Dohse, Rolf J. Langhammer, and Wan-Hsin Liu, IfW Kiel, Invited Paper
Facing the US and China, the European Union Meets Intractable Dilemma to Settle its Digital Sovereignty
Sarah Guillou, SciencesPo OFCE
The Risk of Protectionism: What Can be Lost?
Marek Dabrowski, CASE, Bruegel, Central European University
Discussant: Iulia Siedschlag, ESRI and Trinity College Dublin
Session C3
14.00 - 15.30
Political Issues (Media Room)
Chair: Klaus‐Jürgen Gern, IfW
The Economic and Social Impacts of Lifting Work Restrictions on People Seeking Asylum
Ekaterina Aleynikova and Max Mosley, NIESR
Spheres of Influence
Matteo Camboni, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Michael Porcellacchia, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Impact of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility
Stephen Millard, NIESR
Discussant: Henri Sterdyniak
Round Table
16.00 - 18.00
Round Table (Lecture Hall)
Chair: Rolf Langhammer, IfW Kiel
16.00 – 16.45: Keynote Introduction: European Economic Security in a Fragmenting World
Moritz Schularick, IfW Kiel, Sciences Po and CEPR
16.45 – 18.00: Panel Discussion
Lorenzo Forni, Prometeia Associazione
Katrin Kamin, Siemens AG and Kiel Institute Fellow
Gerdien Meijerink, CPB
Moritz Schularick, IfW Kiel, Sciences Po and CEPR