09.00 - 9.40
Keynote lecture
The Euro at 20: Successes, Problems, Progress and Threats
Karl Whelan, University College Dublin
Chair: Kieran McQuinn, ESRI
9.40 - 11.10
Session 1
Monetary issues
Chair: Stefania Tomasini, PROMETEIA Associzione
Policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market
Rachel Slaymaker, Conor O’Toole and Kieran McQuinn, ESRI, Mike Fahy, Trinity College Dublin and Government of Ireland
Interest overhang: a rationale for the existence of sovereign lending mechanisms
Roberto Pancrazi, University of Warwick, Luca Zavalloni, Central Bank of Ireland
Shocking aspects of monetary policy on income inequality in the Euro Area
Jérôme Creel, Sciences Po, OFCE and ESCP Europe, Mehdi El Herradi University of Bordeaux-LAREFI
Discussant: John FitzGerald, Trinity College Dublin
s2
9:40 - 11:10
Session 2
External trade and migration
Chair: Markku Lehmus, ETLA
Revisiting external imbalances: Insights from sectoral accounts
Cian Allen, Trinity College Dublin
Nobody wins: Protectionism and (un)employment in a model-based analysis
Pascal Jacquinot, ECB, Matija Losej, Central Bank of Ireland, Massimiliano Pisani, Bank of Italy
The macroeconomic determinants of migration
John Lewis and Matt Swannell, Bank of England
Discussant: Gerdien Meijerink, CPB
s3
9.40- 11.10
Session 3
Brexit
Chair: Adele Bergin, ESRI
Brexit: Why, how, and when?
Catherine Mathieu and Henri Sterdyniak, OFCE
Brexit and trade on the island of Ireland
Martina Lawless, ESRI
Discussion
s4
11.30 - 13.00
Session 4
Banking and finance (1)
Chair: Connor O'Toole, ESRI
Financial cycles in Europe: Dynamics, synchronicity and implications for business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances
Amat Adarov, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
Effectiveness of new macrofinancial policies
José A. Carrasco-Gallego, King Juan Carlos University
Revisiting the finance and growth nexus – A deeper look at sectors and instruments
Robert Unger, Deutsche Bundesbank
Discussant: Agustín Bénétrix, Trinity College Dublin
s5
11.30 - 13.00
Session 5
EU The Irish economy and Brexit
Chair: John Lewis, Bank of England
How openness to trade rescued the Irish economy
Kieran McQuinn and Petros Varthalitis, ESRI and Trinity College Dublin
The potential macroeconomic and sectoral consequences of Brexit on Ireland
Christine Arriola, Caitlyn Carrico, David Haugh, Nigel Pain, Elena Rusticelli, Donal Smith, Frank van Tongeren and Ben Westmore, OECD
Ireland and Brexit: Modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios
Adele Bergin, ESRI, Philip Economides, ESRI, Abian Garcia-Rodriguez, ESRI and Trinity College, Gavin Murphy, Department of Finance, Ireland
Discussant: Ray Barrell, Centre for Macroeconomics, LSE and Brunel University London
s6
11.30 - 13.00
Session 6
Political economy
Chair: David Cronin, Central Bank of Ireland
Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in real time
Salvador Barrios, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Adriana Reut, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Sara Riscado, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, and Portuguese Ministry of Finance, Wouter van der Wielen European Commission, Joint Research Centre
An evaluation of different proposals for a European fiscal capacity
Sebastian Weiske and Mustafa Yeter, German Council of Economic Expertsand
The Economic and Monetary Union: Past, present and future
Marek Dabrowski, CASE, Bruegel, and Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Discussant: Klaus-Jürgen Gern, IfW Kiel
s7
14.10 - 15.50
Session 7
Banking and finance (2)
Chair: Robert Unger, Deutsche Bundesbank
Bank capital, excess credit and crisis incidence
Ray Barrell and Dilruba Karim, Centre for Macroeconomics, LSE and Brunel University London
An early warning system for banking crises: From regression-based analysis to machine learning techniques
Elizabeth Jane Casabianca, Prometeia Associazione and Polytechnic University of Marche, Michele Catalano, Prometeia Associazione, Lorenzo Forni, Prometeia Associazione and University of Padua, Elena Giarda, Prometeia Associazione and University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Simone Passeri, Prometeia Associazione
Fiscal distress and banking performance: The role of macroprudential regulation
Hiona Balfoussia, Bank of Greece, Harris Dellas, University of Bern and CEPR, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Bank of Greece
Discussant: Yvonne McCarthy, Central Bank of Ireland
s8
14.10 - 15.50
Session 8
Budgetary issues
Chair: Henri Sterdyniak, OFCE
Estimating the impact of the financial cycle on fiscal policy
Beau Soederhuizen, Rutger Teulings, Rob Luginbuhl, CPB
Public-sector employment over the life cycle
Pedro Gomes, Birkbeck, University of London, Felix Wellschmied, University Carlos III Madrid
Fiscal Multipliers with an informal sector
Harris Dellas, University of Bern, Dimitris Malliaropulos, Bank of Greece and University of Piraeus, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Bank of Greece, Evangelia Vourvachaki, Bank of Greece
Discussant: John McCarthy, Irish Department of Finance
14.10 - 15.50
Session 9
Inequalities
Chair: Jérôme Creel, Sciences Po, OFCE and ESCP Europe
Inequality in EMU: is there a core periphery dualism?
Tatiana Cesaroni, Bankitalia and MEF-DT, Enrico D’Elia, MEF-DF, and Roberta De Santis, Istat and LUISS
Rent seeking worsens economic outcomes and increases wealth inequality
Angelos Angelopoulos, Athens University of Economics and Business and Greek Open University, Konstantinos Angelopoulos, University of Glasgow and CESifo
Modeling rent seeking activities: quality of institutions, macroeconomic performance, and the economic crisis
Tryfon Christou, Athens University of Economics and Business, Apostolis Philippopoulos, Athens University of Economics and Business, and CESifo, Vanghelis Vassilatos, Athens University of Economics and Business
Discussant: Claire Keane, ESRI
rt
16.20 - 18.00
Round Table
Chair: John FitzGerald, ESRI
Klaus-Jürgen Gern, IfW Kiel
Paolo Onofri, PROMETEIA
Karl Pichelmann, European Commission