s1

09.00 - 10.45

Session 1
Business Cycle Convergence in the EU

Chair: George Gelauff, CPB

Regional Growth Cycle Convergence in the European Union, Gabriele Tondl, Europainstitut, University of Economics and Business Administration Vienna and Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin and Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn
Meta-analysis of the Business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs, Jarko Fidrmuc, University of Munich, Faculty of Economics, CESifo, Comenius University Bratislava, and Iikka Korhonen, Institute for economies in transition, Bank of Finland
A model of the stochastic convergence between euro-zone business cycles, Matthieu Lemoine, OFCE
Explaining Growth Divergences in the Euro Area: The Role of National Differences in Residential Investment, Klaus-Jürgen Gern and Carsten-Patrick Meier, The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)

Discussant: Ray Barrell, NIESR

s2

19.00 - 10.45

Session 2
Exchange Rates Issues for the NMS

Chair: Catherine Mathieu, OFCE

Convergence in exchange rates: Market’s view on CE-4 joining EMU, Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Czech National Bank, CNRS-ROSES Paris, State University-Higher School of Economics Moscow, Ian Babetskii, Czech National Bank, CNRS-ROSES Paris, State University-Higher School of Economics Moscow and Jiří Podpiera, Czech National Bank
Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in European Union New Members and Candidate Countries, Virginie Coudert Bank of France, University of Paris 13, CEPN and CEPII and Cécile Couharde, University of Paris 13, CEPN
Fast Sailing toward the Euro: Dangers of the Lee Shore, Aleš Bulíř, IMF and Kateřina Šmídková, Czech National Bank
Exchange rate regimes and EMU accession strategies, Mateusz Szczurek, ING Bank, Warszawa

Discussant: Gunther Schnabl, University of Leipzig

s3

11.15 - 12.45

Session 3
Interest Rate Convergence

Chair: Stefania Tomasini, PROMETEIA

Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Sacred Heart University, Fairfield and Kirsten Lommatzsch, DIW Berlin
Interest rate pass-through convergence in an enlarged eurozone, Harald Sander, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Applied Sciences Cologne and METEOR, Maastricht University, and Stefanie Kleimeier, Limburg Institute of Financial Economics and METEOR, Maastricht University
Investigating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Post-Transition Economies: The Czech Republic and Poland, Atanas Hristov, DIW Berlin

Discussant: Enzo Weber, Freie Universität Berlin

s4

11.15 - 12.45

Session 4
Macroeconomic Issues for the NMS

Chair: Ewald Walterskirchen, WIFO

Aggregate Wage Flexibility in Selected New EU Member States, Ian Babetskii, Czech National Bank, CNRS-ROSES, University of Paris I-Sorbonne
Current account imbalances and monetary union, Marek Dabrowski, CASE
The challenges of EMU accession faced by catching-up countries: A Slovak Republic case study, Anne-Marie Brook, OECD

Discussant: Jiri Slacalek, DIW Berlin

s5

13.45 - 15.30

Session 5
Macroeconomic Strategies in the Accession Process

Chair: Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag, ESRI

Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States: Helping to chart the route, Ignazio Angeloni, Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, Michael Flad, Johann Wolfgang Goethe University Frankfurt, and Francesco Paolo Mongelli, European Central Bank
Exchange rate stability, inflation and growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe, Paul de Grauwe, Katholieke Universteit Leuven, Center for Economic Studies and Gunther Schnabl, University of Leipzig
Debts, deficits, and the accession of the New Member States to the euro, Andrew Hugues Hallett, Vanderbilt University, CEPR and John Lewis, De Nederlandsche Bank, Tallinn Technology University

Discussant: Henri Sterdyniak, OFCE

s6

13.45 - 15.30

Session 6
Exchange Rates (2)

Chair: Markku Kotilainen, ETLA

Exchange rate regimes and the transition process in the Western Balkans, A comparative analysis, Ansgar Belke and Albina Zenkić, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart
Euro adoption and the transfer problem: The case of the “Visegrad countries”, Jan-Alexander Bethge and Renate Ohr, University of Göttingen
Capital inflows, monetary policy and exchange rate regime in New Member States: implications for the accession to the euro area, Pavel Diev and Emmanuel Kurtz, Banque de France
Two-stage games of endogenous fiscal coalition formation: Institutional design of stabilization policies and the accession to a monetary union, Jacob Engwerda, Tilburg University, Tomasz Michalak, University of Antwerp, Joseph Plasmans, University of Antwerp, Tilburg University and Bas Van Aarle, University of Maastricht

Discussant: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, CEPII

s7

15.30 - 16.45

Session 7
Monetary Policy in an Enlarged Union

Chair: Joachim Scheide, IfW

ECB governance in an enlarged Eurozone, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, CEPII and Edouard Turkisch, University Paris X
Regional biases and monetary policy in the EMU, Wojciech Paczynski, CASE
Does money matter in the ECB strategy? New evidence based on ECB communication, Helge Berger, Free University Berlin, CESifo Munich, Jakob de Haan, University of Groningen, CESifo Munich and Jan-Egbert Sturm, ETH – Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, CESifo Munich

Discussant: Bas Van Aarle, University of Maastricht

s8

15.30 - 16.45

Session 8
Financial Issues for the NMS

Chair: Klaus-Jürgen Gern, IfW   

Lending Booms in the new EU Member States: Will Euro Adoption Matter?, Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, National Bank of Poland and Warsaw School of Economics
The expected effect of the euro on the Hungarian monetary transmission, Gábor Orbán and Zoltán Szalai, Magyar Nemzeti Bank
The structure of the Central Eastern European countries’ banking market as an element of European financial integration, Ion Lapteacru, LAREFI-Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV

Discussant: Kirsten Lommatzsch, DIW Berlin   

rt

17.00 - 18.45

Round Table: 

Towards an Enlarging European Monetary Union: Challenges for Old and New Member States

Chair: Alfred Steinherr, DIW Berlin

Marek Dabrowski, CASE
John Fitz Gerald, ESRI
Jürgen Kröger, European Commission
Wolfram Schrettl, Freie Universität Berlin